If the scenario is well designed and executed, you have the highest probability of getting the best outcome in the state of knowledge accessible.
We have a predisposition to seeking patterns, or potentially in the pursuit of logic. Logic is crucial, it is an interdisciplinary approach which involves cognitive science, sociology, culturology, psychology, philosophy, ecology, etc, to predict and prevent certain critical problems from happening. Even though you couldn’t predict anything beforehand, you can always imagine different scenarios based on “lessons learned” with many experiences involved in current or in the past. Strategic scenario planning is to navigate through the digital dynamic, discover the path via unconventional thinking, believing in yourself and most importantly, in your team to achieve the high performing results.
What is invaluable about even quick high-level scenario planning is that you can often establish a set of “What-if’ scenarios with agreed-to response plans in place: While scenario planning can benefit from computer simulations, it is less formalized and can be used to make plans for qualitative patterns that show up in a wide variety of simulated events. Organizations need to make sure they have a robust and shared view about Why? Why are they here and what is their real intention? Ask “what if” questions as well.
Applying creative thinking to ask open-ended questions would make changes often more effective, fun and desirable, motivate people riding above the learning curve, stimulate intellectual curiosity. Not only ask deep “WHY” to diagnose the root cause of problems but also ask open-ended questions such as “WHY NOT” or “What If” to spur creativity. Good scenario planning stimulates creativity and increases risk intelligence.
You can use your scenarios to explore how your current strategies will or will not help you against possible disruption: Scenarios can be very strong planning tools qualitatively, and get you the best time-value results. A good middle ground is to estimate a range of potential impacts for each scenario; then itemize the steps and costs required to create a detailed plan once the disruption appears to be certain. Strategic planning depends on the context-internal and external dimensions you and your organization want to focus on and how you go about it.
Strategic planning is a statement of “higher intent” but is not a detailed plan in itself as you need to enable desirable emergent property and make adjustments accordingly. It takes commitment and discipline to stay focused on the real priorities of the business instead of being distracted by what seems to be more urgent at any given moment. It’s critical to make a middle ground balance of investing aggressively and managing cost wisely. Use your scenarios to explore how your current strategies will or will not help you against possible disruption and compare your strategies to your current competitors and even invent future competitors.
Scenarios can be very strong planning tools qualitatively, and get you the best time-value result: The value of scenario planning is to uncover significant risk in a strategic plan. Assuming the risk is indeed significant, then the question of how far do you go to create contingency plans to address the issues.
The kick-in of a Scenario Plan has been prepared in advance. It is a matter of figuring out “where are you now,” and “where do you want to be” by navigating the full set of “Ws: Why, What, How, Who, When and Where, etc.” Estimate a range of potential impacts for each scenario; then itemize the steps and costs required to create a detailed plan once the disruption appears to be certain.
Nonlinearity, hyperdiversity, information exponentiality, unpredictability, etc, are all causes of uncertainty. There are strategic risks and systemic risks, there are financial risks, operational risks, or regulation risks, etc, in portfolio management. The more complex the change is, the more comprehensive the changing scenario needs to be. Be cautious of the learning curve and risk behind the large scale of changes. It is important to experiment, explore, engage and strike the right balance between flexibility and process; creativity and logic. Business management is multifaceted; it takes multistage logical scenarios to create multiple pathways for leading changes smoothly.
You can use your scenarios to explore how your current strategies will or will not help you against possible disruption. If the scenario is well designed and executed, you have the highest probability of getting the best outcome in the state of knowledge accessible. This gives immediate guidance and allows everyone to anticipate costs and effort if/when the market changes.
